Support drops for Florida’s adult-use marijuana push as legal hurdles mount, signatures stall, and a pivotal 2026 ballot deadline looms.
As the clock ticks toward Florida’s Feb. 1 deadline for qualifying a constitutional amendment to legalize adult-use marijuana, the effort is losing steam in the one arena that can’t be finessed with legal briefs or PAC money: public opinion.
A recent Florida Chamber of Commerce poll, conducted Jan. 2–10, showed only 51% of likely voters support the proposed “Adult Personal Use of Marijuana” amendment. That’s well below the 60% supermajority required for constitutional changes under state law — and a five-point drop from the 2024 version of the measure, which ultimately failed despite majority approval.
Simultaneously, the initiative faces a legal maze that could derail the campaign before it even lands on the November 2026 ballot. Between a signature count falling short of the required 880,062, a string of petition challenges, and a looming Florida Supreme Court review over the amendment’s ballot language, Smart & Safe Florida — the Trulieve-funded political committee backing the initiative — finds itself outgunned, outpaced, and under the microscope.
Despite a renewed push and massive spending, backers face declining support and intensifying legal/administrative headwinds as the 2026 ballot deadline approaches.
Florida, home to nearly 1 million registered medical marijuana patients, is the largest medical-only cannabis market in the country. A switch to adult-use marijuana could radically shift enforcement, regulation, and business dynamics — in Florida and nationally. That potential, however, may never reach voters if procedural blocks and litigation succeed in keeping it off the ballot.
2024 Failed, 2026 Rebooted
Florida’s last adult-use marijuana amendment — nearly identical in its core provisions — received 56% support in 2024. That cleared the majority but not the constitutional threshold. This time, Smart & Safe Florida updated the language and re-launched under a new timeline, targeting the 2026 ballot.
Per Florida Division of Elections records, the measure had 675,307 valid signatures as of mid-January, with only weeks remaining to hit the statutory threshold of 880,062 by Feb. 1, 2026. Complicating matters, the campaign has also been forced to navigate recently enacted signature verification rules and lawsuits targeting both the collection process and petition validity.
Supreme Court Will Decide If Voters Even Get a Say
On Feb. 5, the Florida Supreme Court will hear oral arguments that could determine whether the initiative even qualifies for ballot placement. Florida law requires the court to confirm that proposed amendments address only a single subject and that their ballot summaries are not misleading.
State Attorney General James Uthmeier and the Florida Chamber of Commerce are pressing the court to toss the measure, citing the allegedly misleading phrase “in public” in the ballot summary. They argue this glosses over the full amendment text, which bans consumption “in any public place” — a broader scope that includes parks, beaches, and other open spaces.
Opponents also claim the initiative unlawfully conflicts with federal law, an argument echoed by national anti-legalization advocates trying to block state-level momentum. Supporters, in response, argue that the court lacks the jurisdiction to rule on federal preemption and that the ballot language is legally sound — a position backed by the court’s earlier decision allowing the 2024 version to proceed.
What the Poll Actually Shows — and Doesn’t
The Florida Chamber’s poll was conducted among 602 likely voters with a margin of error of +/-4%. While the topline figure — 51% support — raises alarm bells, it’s not a prediction. Mid-cycle polling often diverges from election-day results, and voter sentiment on cannabis can shift quickly in response to media framing, endorsement patterns, and changes to ballot language.
Still, the trend is concerning. The 2024 version had 56% support. A five-point drop suggests more than statistical noise — especially with opposition messaging ramping up around public safety and corporate control. For Trulieve, which has poured millions into the campaign, the narrowing gap between cost and outcome may soon demand recalibration.
Petition Friction: From Invalidations to Mailer Confusion
While the raw signature numbers show a shortfall, the campaign’s legal filings argue that the deficit isn’t entirely organic. In a pending lawsuit, Smart & Safe Florida claims the state improperly invalidated about 71,000 petitions — largely from inactive voters or those gathered by out-of-state circulators — based on restrictive rules linked to 2023’s H.B. 1205 law. That law imposed sharp deadlines and even felony exposure for circulator violations, which civil rights groups have challenged in federal court.
Further muddying the waters is Florida’s new petition verification process. Voters who submitted a petition may now receive mailers asking them to confirm their signature. If they respond saying they never signed it, the petition can be tossed. That system, overseen by the Office of Election Crimes and Security, has triggered complaints from election supervisors about staffing, cost, and vague guidance.
Aggregate data on how many verification notices were sent — and how many signatures were invalidated as a result — remain unclear, raising transparency concerns as the Feb. 1 deadline looms.
Behind the Ballot Language Dispute: Parsing “In Public”
Central to the Supreme Court fight is a linguistic tug-of-war over two words: “in public.”
The amendment summary provided to voters says it permits adult-use marijuana “in public,” while the full legal text restricts public consumption “in any public place.” Opponents argue this discrepancy could mislead voters into thinking they’re voting for broader freedoms than the measure allows.
Supporters call the critique a semantic distraction, noting that similar challenges failed in 2024 and that Florida’s constitutional rules don’t require the summary to be a perfect replica of the full text — only that it’s clear and not misleading.
The court’s decision could hinge less on cannabis and more on how strictly it applies the “clarity and single-subject” rules — which many critics argue have become a gatekeeping mechanism for ballot access in Florida.
Direct Democracy Under Pressure
Critics see the adult-use marijuana campaign as collateral damage in what MJBizDaily called a broader “political war” on voter initiatives. Since 2022, Florida lawmakers have advanced multiple bills tightening petition deadlines, restricting who can collect signatures, and elevating the legal risks of campaign errors — especially for well-funded efforts.
Supporters argue these laws aren’t neutral—they’re targeted. And not just at cannabis. From environmental protections to voter rights, a growing list of citizen-led initiatives has been stalled or stifled before voters ever saw the question.
A Corporate Cannabis Dilemma
Fueling the opposition’s messaging is a familiar refrain: this isn’t legalization by the people, but by Trulieve. As Florida’s largest medical marijuana operator, Trulieve’s financial footprint in the Smart & Safe Florida campaign raises questions even among some legalization supporters.
Per state campaign finance filings, Trulieve has contributed tens of millions to the initiative. While that cash has bankrolled signature drives and legal defense, it’s also become an attack line: critics frame the amendment as a monopoly play that favors existing medical marijuana treatment centers (MMTCs) at the expense of new entrants or small operators.
Industry insiders are divided. Some say the initiative’s regulatory structure could entrench current license holders, while others argue it’s a necessary first step that can be refined post-legalization.
Federal Shifts, Local Impacts
Nationally, the cannabis conversation has tilted toward reform. President Biden’s December 2025 executive order directing the Department of Justice to fast-track marijuana’s rescheduling to Schedule III drew headlines, but its practical impact on state ballot initiatives remains limited.
Even if the federal Controlled Substances Act becomes less restrictive, Florida’s courts and voters will still shape the rules for possession, licensing, and enforcement within the state.
What Happens Next
The next key milestone is Feb. 1 — the final day for submitting valid signatures to qualify the amendment. If the initiative misses the mark, there’s no do-over for 2026. If the Florida Supreme Court rejects the amendment over summary language or the single-subject rule, a rewrite and restart would be legally possible but practically implausible.
If, however, the measure clears both hurdles, the campaign will shift from validation to persuasion — and from legal briefs to voter outreach. That means targeting turnout in a non-presidential election year, where the electorate skews older, whiter, and more conservative — not exactly a dream demo for marijuana reform.
Still, with 931,959 Floridians already enrolled in the medical marijuana program, the base for reform isn’t theoretical — it’s transactional. Whether that base shows up in 2026 could determine whether Florida joins the adult-use majority or remains a medical-only island with the most expensive ballot fight in weed history.
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